You may recall a few months ago that James Lipton of "Inside the Actors Studio" went to the pages of New York Magazine and gave his unsolicited advice to Governor Romney on how to act like, well, a human. After last night's debate, it appears Romney may have followed some of Lipton's suggestions.

On the show today, Lipton gave the Republican nominee some positive reviews, saying Romney went from appearing like that unlikable boss who makes "lame jokes" to someone with "conviction" who relishes being on stage.

The same could not be said for President Obama.

AP

The first presidential debate was dubbed do-or-die for Governor Mitt Romney. This morning, it sounds like he did "do" it.

By a 2 to 1 margin, uncommitted voters said Governor Romney won last night, according to a 500-person instant poll by CBS News. Many of the headlines across the country this morning suggest the same: The Washington Post, "Romney Goes on Offense, Forcing Obama to Defend Record." The Los Angeles Times, "In Position to Surprise, Romney Has Sharp Answers in First Debate. The Denver Post, "Mitt Romney Comes on Strong Against President Obama in University of Denver Debate." Earlier on the TODAY Show, Obama Senior Adviser David Axelrod admitted that Governor Romney gave a strong performance last night - adding that it was just that, a "performance." Moments later, Romney Senior Adviser Ed Gillespie called Romney's "performance" a "fact-based critique of the failure of President Obama's policies."

Others, including BuzzFeed, note that last night may have been the pivot to the center that had long been expected of the Massachusetts Governor following his primary win.

According to Twitter, last night was the most tweeted event in U.S. political history, topping the DNC and RNC. Topping the trend: 17,000 tweets per minute for "Big Bird" and 10,000 per minute for "PBS."

Magid CPI: Debate: The public's elastic perception of debate winners and losers; Turkey has retaliated, 'no interest in war' with Syria, official says; Deadly meningitis outbreak reported in 5 states 

Google: presidential debate; Nicki Minaj; Jennifer Livingston 

Twitter: #debate; Jim Lehrer; Mitt Romney

Twitter Political Index: Obama 36 (+11)/Romney 37 (+5)

YouTube: CBS WKBT News Anchor's On-Air Response to Viewer Calling Her Fat (Oct. 2nd, 2012)

YouTube Politics: Vice President Joe Biden's Post-Debate Remarks

Billboard (Hot 100): One More Night – Maroon 5; Gangnam Style – PSY; Some Nights – fun.

Billboard (Ringtones): Call Me Maybe – Carly Rae Jepsen; Pontoon – Little Big Town; Whistle – Flo Rida

Tonight is big for both candidates -- but it is huge for Governor Mitt Romney. In the new poll by NBC News, the Wall Street Journal and Marist, President Obama bests Governor Romney in Ohio by eight points, and has leads within the margin of error in Florida and Virginia.

But below the topline numbers, there are more problematic signs for the Romney campaign. More than half of voters say recent news has given them a less favorable impression of Governor Romney, signaling his "47%" comments could be an inflection point in this race. When given the full description of that comment specifically, 45% of voters say they had a more negative view of Romney. Also a bad sign for Team Romney is that his favorability is still underwater -- 41% to 44%.

Can Romney change the dialogue tonight?

In his latest National Journal article, Ron Brownstein argues that the most important voting demographic of the 2012 election is one that Democrats traditionally have trouble with, but Obama is making inroads with in swing states this cycle: Non college-educated white women.

While President Obama lost this group -- or as Brownstein refers to them, "waitress moms" -- to John McCain in 2008 by a 41%-59% margin, the Obama campaign has targeted these voters by airing ads on networks like Bravo and Lifetime and on shows like Dr. Phil and Judge Judy.

Is President Obama loading up his zinger arsenal with some memorable one-liners for tonight? Ben LaBolt, national press secretary for the Obama campaign, says don't expect any rhymes or anything in that "ridiculously cheesy category."

If you look at the latest NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll numbers out this morning, it appears the race is tightening in several key battleground states.

While the contest in Ohio remains elusive for Governor Mitt Romney (he trails President Obama 51-43 in the Buckeye State), he has closed the gap to a statistical dead heat in Virginia (48-46) and Florida (47-46). Governor Romney is up two points in both those states since our sample there last month, while the President has lost one point in Virginia and two in Florida. There are a number of reasons the numbers may have shifted, including a "dissipation in some of that post-convention bounce that [President Obama] enjoyed," explains Marist Poll director Lee Miringoff.

Another factor that could change all these numbers? Tonight's first presidential debate matchup. Will tonight be a "contest modifier," as we like to say on NOW? We'll look at what's at stake today at noon ET - and be sure to follow us and join in the conversation tonight as we live tweet on @NowWithAlex.

PANEL

Kurt Andersen, Author, “True Believers”/Host, "Studio 360" (@kbandersen)

Richard Wolffe, msnbc Political Analyst (@richardwolffedc)

Karen Finney, Fmr. DNC Communications Dir./msnbc Political Analyst (@finneyk)

Michael Crowley, Deputy Washington Bureau Chief, TIME (@crowleytime)

GUESTS

Mark Halperin, msnbc/TIME Sr. Political Analyst (@markhalperin)

Ben LaBolt, Obama Campaign National Press Secretary (@benlabolt)

Be sure to follow @NowWithAlex tonight as we live tweet the debate!

Magid CPI: Romney Campaign: Ann Romney Takes Bigger Role on Behalf of the Man She Knows; Debate: 5 things to watch in tonight's debate; Obama Campaign: Obama Outspending Romney on TV Ads 

Google: Fall Leaves; Adam Greenberg; Peanut butter recall

Twitter: Apple; Christmas; #nowplaying

Twitter Political Index: Obama 25 (+2)/Romney 32 (+7)

YouTube: Candidate Taste Test - The Campaign

YouTube Politics: Stephanie Cutter on Tonight's Presidential Debate

Billboard (Hot 100): One More Night – Maroon 5; Gangnam Style – PSY; Some Nights – fun.

Billboard (Ringtones): Pontoon – Little Big Town; Whistle – Flo Rida; Call Me Maybe – Carly Rae Jepsen

While Governor Mitt Romney's campaign struggles to define the specifics of its policies for America's future, President Obama could face some tough questions about his past. Today Karl Rove's Super PAC American Crossroads unleashed its largest ad buy of this cycle -- it includes $11 million to run the ad below in eight swing states. Titled "Actually Happened," the ad claims, "This is what President Obama said the jobless rate would be if we passed the stimulus: 5.6%. But this is what the jobless rate actually is: 8.1%." As our friends at First Read point out, the attack is misleading because President Obama never promised 5.6% unemployment. According to FactCheck.org, that figure comes from a "speculative report at the beginning of Obama’s presidency" which noted several times there was "substantial uncertainty around all of our estimates" because of the recession.

Based on the mountains of polling data, it's probably safe to assume that Governor Romney's path to victory is looking a bit rough. Just look at Nate Silver's influential blog, which puts President Obama's chances of winning at 85.7% and predicts that he will collect 320 electoral votes and nearly 52% of the popular vote. 

Today, Silver came on the show to discuss why some predictions are right on target, while others completely miss the mark. In his new book, "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't," Silver says an accurate political prediction may come down to personality. He illustrates this point by referencing Isaiah Berlin's famous 1953 essay, "The Hedgehog and The Fox." Hedgehogs are big personalities who see the world through the prism of big ideas. Foxes, on the other hand, take a more nuanced and complicated view of the world. In politics, hedgehogs may be better at giving good soundbites. But foxes are the ones to go to when you're looking for an accurate forecast.

Silver writes:

You can get lost in the narrative. Politics may be especially susceptible to poor predictions precisely because of its human elements: a good election engages our dramatic sensibilities. This does not mean that you must feel totally dispassionate about a political event in order to make a good prediction about it. But it does mean that a fox's aloof attitude can pay dividends.  

Republican Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) spent much of Monday night's Massachusetts Senate debate -- the second of four against challenger Elizabeth Warren -- stressing his independent credentials and running away from his congressional bosses. Asked by debate moderator David Gregory if he would vote for Senator Mitch McConnnell (R-KY) to be majority leader in January if elected to a full term, Brown took a pass.

“I've already let it be very clearly known to Mitch McConnell that I’m completely disgusted as to what’s going on down there," Brown said. "He has a lot of work to do to earn my vote because I don’t work for him or Harry Reid. That’s the beauty of being independent."

Kissing babies is nothing new on the campaign trail, but newborns are taking center stage in a new Republican fear-mongering campaign. On the show today we discussed a TV ad that Governor Romney's campaign released earlier this month, in which a mother tells her baby, "Dear daughter, your share of Obama's debt is over $50,000, and it grows every day." That ad seems to have set off a series of Super PAC ads echoing that strategy. Below you can watch a Restore Our Future spot released this past week, tracking a child's life from the President's inauguration until now.

Another ad from the Super PAC Americans for Job Security ends with a baby about to burst into tears as her mother narrates, "the future is getting worse under Obama."

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy had a secret recording system installed in the Oval Office. Hidden on his desk and on a coffee table were microphones that picked up hundreds of hours of meetings with his staff, other elected officials and even former Presidents. The transcripts of many of these extraordinary conversations are compiled in the new book, "Listening In: The Secret White House Recordings of John F. Kennedy," by Ted Widmer.

The tapes provide an unusual glimpse into Kennedy's management style and decision-making process. One conversation that we didn't get to on the show today was between Kennedy and his predecessor, Dwight D. Eisenhower. At the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, with the threat of nuclear war looming like it had never before, Kennedy sought the advice of the former President and five-star general, one of the few people in the world who could feel the weight that was on Kennedy's shoulders. Take a listen to the clip below. 

President Obama may be enjoying an advantage in the polls, but his administration's handling of the recent terrorist attack in Libya has provided Governor Mitt Romney with a rare opportunity to score some points against his rival on foreign policy.

It's not yet clear how aggressively Team Romney will move to take advantage of the administration's shifting explanations, but some GOP operatives smell blood and believe the administration's bungled response to the attacks can be exploited for political gain.

Five days after the September 11th assault on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice said that the murder of four Americans appeared to be a "spontaneous reaction" erupting from protests against an anti-Muslim film made in the U.S.. However, just four days later, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters it was "self-evident that what happened in Benghazi was a terrorist attack."

The discrepancy caused some Republicans to question the administration's adroitness in responding to the situation and speculate about a possible political motive in concealing the true nature of the attack.

"It was either willful ignorance or abysmal intelligence," Senator John McCain (R-AZ) said over the weekend. On Meet The Press Sunday, White House senior adviser David Plouffe called any suggestion of a political calculus "preposterous" and "really offensive."

Today on the show, Alex and her panel discussed whether the administration mishandled the situation, and whether Republican criticism is justified or simply an attempt to score political points during election season.