It was the most talked about poll of the day, and perhaps the moment conservatives have been waiting for since Governor Romney stepped off the debate stage last Wednesday night. A new survey by Pew Research shows Governor Romney with a four point lead nationally -- outside the margin of error and a 12-point swing from a month ago. Equally striking is the shift among women, who supported President Obama 56%-38% in September, but were split at 47%-47% in the latest poll.
But how much should be read into this single poll? Is it a sign of an inflection point, or an outlier? Author of the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog Nate Silver urges caution, writing, "it's one thing to give a poll a lot of weight, and another to become so enthralled with it that you dismiss all other evidence." But that hasn't stymied broad, earth-shifting conclusions. The Daily Beast's Andrew Sullivan called the poll "devastating, just devastating" and claimed, "it's hard to see how a president and his party recover." RedState’s Erick Erickson also seemed to assume Romney had arrived, declaring "liberals are now in full meltdown." But it was just a few weeks ago that Erickson tried to undercut polls that favored President Obama, writing: "I also believe the polls are reflecting a bigger Democratic strength than is really there."
Perhaps the best advice comes from frequent NOWist and editor-at-large for Time Magazine Mark Halperin, who puts all this poll volatility into perspective: "the reality is that right around the time whatever debate bounce Mitt Romney got from his performance settles down, the two combatants will have their next face off on Long Island, shaking up the race again." Whether this is a blip or a bounce, it may only last until the next debate.
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I keep tuning into MSNBC and CNN to find something feasable to get me to vote for Obama again but all you guys, who i expect to support Obama at every turn, can't come up with anything but Big Bird. Can't you see that the PBS comment made during the debate was just an example of cutting back on borrowing money to pay for things? I can see that...You all sound like idiots and whiners. It's embarrassing !!! STOP His polls are dropping because it looks like he has nothing else good to talk about. When you guys sit on television and actually try to use Romneys Big Bird example to hurt him, you all look stupid and it is making people think you guys are so out of touch that they will vote for Romney. Class it up !!! Be humble, talk about Obama's performance at the debate, talk about the donor scandal and Libia. It doesnt hurt Obama, it makes him real and it makes you guys look credible not whiney and full of excuses. Get your dignity back by leaving your bias at home and reporting facts. That's what Obama supporters want. We are embarrased by your excuses and whining. You are hurting him and his previous ability to still have support from those who voted for him even when he screws up because he owned it and was honest. This is embarrassing and causing a lot of people who think, you network people, are lying and covering up, to vote Romney.